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Lizama League · est. 2011 · season sixteen · week 6 of 14

Week 6 Preview

Eight of the twelve lineups are starting somebody on bye this week, 11 starters in all, and two of them are quarterbacks. The tightest line on the board is 1.0, Jordi over a Mario lineup with Justin Jefferson and Chase Brown in it, both off. The highest projection in the league belongs to the commissioner, at 133.9, against his own autodraft bot, which is the most conflicted sentence in this report.

Week 6 matchups

Projected starter totals from ESPN, refreshed Wednesday. A starter on bye projects for nothing, so several of these lines move the moment someone opens the app.

Man against machine
Dan Robot · 2-3 Dan Robot 118.0
at
Uriel · 3-2 Balrogs 133.9
Uriel favored by 15.9 · 251.9 combined
Dan Robot leans onChris Olave WR · 17.4 proj
Uriel leans onBijan Robinson RB · 23.1 proj
Watch list: Chris Olave (questionable), Jake Bates (bye)

Uriel is favored by 15.9 with no flagged starters and 133.9 projected, the most in the league. The bot is 34-20 against the field this season; the man whose login it runs on is 30-25. It is also starting Jake Bates at kicker on a bye week, and it will not be talked out of it.

Quarterback optional
Tayler · 0-5 Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks 91.1
at
Misa · 3-2 Obsidians 108.1
Misa favored by 17.0 · 199.2 combined
Tayler leans onJayden Daniels QB · 19.9 proj
Misa leans onPuka Nacua WR · 22.8 proj
Watch list: Sam LaPorta (bye), TreVeyon Henderson (questionable), Joe Burrow (bye), Josh Downs (questionable)

Misa is starting Joe Burrow, on bye, at quarterback and is still favored by 17, with 63.3 projected on the bench, the most in the league. Tayler is 0-5 and 8-47 against the field, with Sam LaPorta also on bye at tight end. Jayden Daniels faces Misa's own kicker on Monday night, so the rookie's best player is the one thing standing between Misa and three points.

Widest on the board
Oriol · 4-1 Firebreathing Platypuses 85.0
at
Joe · 5-0 Photofreak 121.5
Joe favored by 36.5 · 206.5 combined
Oriol leans onBrock Bowers TE · 19.6 proj
Joe leans onMatthew Stafford QB · 19.6 proj
Watch list: Brock Bowers (questionable), Evan McPherson (bye), Vikings D/ST (bye), Quinshon Judkins (questionable)

First seed against the first-ranked team, and the gap is 36.5. Joe is 5-0 but 25-30 against the field, and has had the fewest points scored against him of anybody, 491.6. Oriol is projected for 85, the lowest number in the league, because the kicker and the Vikings defense are both on bye and Brock Bowers is questionable.

Defending champion
Yael · 2-3 Potatoe 114.3
at
Sam · 2-3 Mean Machine 90.9
Yael favored by 23.4 · 205.2 combined
Yael leans onKenneth Walker III RB · 22.7 proj
Sam leans onDerrick Henry RB · 20.6 proj
Watch list: Ladd McConkey (questionable), Will Reichard (bye), T.J. Hockenson (bye), Kyler Murray (bye)

Sam is starting Kyler Murray at quarterback and T.J. Hockenson at tight end, both on bye, which explains a projection of 90.9 and a 23.4-point deficit. Yael has scored 651.4 this season and had 692.9 scored against Potatoe, the most in the league, so a gift would be timely. Sam is on a two-game win streak and has 46.1 on the bench to keep it going.

Game of the week
Jordi · 2-3 Windwaker 95.5
at
Mario · 1-4 Stairway to Seven 94.5
Jordi favored by 1.0 · 190.0 combined
Jordi leans onCeeDee Lamb WR · 18.6 proj
Mario leans onChristian McCaffrey RB · 22.2 proj
Watch list: Aaron Jones Sr. (bye), Chase Brown (bye), Justin Jefferson (bye), Alvin Kamara (questionable)

Jordi by 1.0, the tightest line on the board, and both sides start a running back on bye. Mario has Chase Brown and Justin Jefferson off and 63.1 on the bench; Jordi has Aaron Jones off. With 46.1% of Mario's lineup in the Monday night game, this one is not finished until the last snap of the week.

Best quarterback
Benji · 4-1 Suzaku 120.2
at
Toño · 2-3 Seitseman 110.8
Benji favored by 9.4 · 231.0 combined
Benji leans onJosh Allen QB · 25.1 proj
Toño leans onLamar Jackson QB · 19.3 proj
Watch list: Kyle Monangai (questionable), Denzel Boston (questionable), DJ Moore (questionable), Lamar Jackson (questionable)

Benji is favored by 9.4 behind Josh Allen, the highest-projected player in the league at 25.1. Toño has Lamar Jackson and DJ Moore both questionable, and 32.2% of the lineup in Baltimore at Cleveland. Benji's Denzel Boston plays in that same game for Cleveland, so one touchdown there helps Benji and costs Toño at once.

Game of the week

Two byes, one point

Mario is 1-4, eleventh, on a three-game losing streak, and a 1.0-point underdog while starting two players who are not playing. Jordi is 2-3, ninth, and starting one. Whoever fixes their lineup first is probably the favorite, and nobody can be sure of that until Monday night.

1.0the spread, the tightest on the board
3starters on bye between the two lineups
63.1projected on Mario's bench
46.1%of Mario's lineup in the Monday night game

Mario has two rings and Jordi is still chasing a first, and the deciding move this week is a drag and drop.

Manager spotlight

Three managers whose weekend depends on one particular window of football.

Firebreathing Platypuses · 1 ring Oriol
85.0 vs Joe underdog by 36.5 · they project 121.5
Leaning on Brock Bowers, TE, 19.6 projected · vs BUF, Sun 4:25 PM ET
4-1 · seed 3W1 streakall-play 34-201 title28% in one game3 flagged starters

First in the power rankings and 34-20 against the field, but projected for 85 this week, the lowest in the league. The kicker and the defense are both on bye, and only 27.3 sits on the bench to replace them. The 2018 ring is still on the books, whatever the draft awards page said.

Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks Tayler
91.1 vs Misa underdog by 17.0 · they project 108.1
Leaning on Jayden Daniels, QB, 19.9 projected · at SF, Mon 8:15 PM ET
0-5 · seed 12L5 streakall-play 8-47rookie season41% in one game

0-5, and 40.7% of the lineup is in one game, Washington at San Francisco on Monday night, with Jayden Daniels and Mike Evans. If the rookie is going to win a first game this season, the news will arrive last. Still the best team name in league history.

Seitseman · 2 rings Toño
110.8 vs Benji underdog by 9.4 · they project 120.2
Leaning on Lamar Jackson, QB, 19.3 projected · at CLE, Sun 1:00 PM ET
2-3 · seed 8W1 streakall-play 31-242 titles32% in one game

No starter on bye, which this week makes him one of only four. But Lamar Jackson and DJ Moore are both questionable, and Lamar and Zay Flowers carry 35.7 points of the lineup in one early game in Cleveland. A 9.4-point underdog with a Sunday morning to get through.

Power rankings

Record and all-play combined, weighted 40/60. All-play is your record against every team each week, not just the one you were scheduled against - it is what your season looks like with the schedule taken out.

#TeamRecordAll-play
1 Firebreathing Platypuses
Oriol
4-1 34-20
2 Photofreak
Joe
5-0 25-30
3 Suzaku
Benji
4-1 32-23
4 Obsidians
Misa
3-2 35-20
5 Balrogs
Uriel
3-2 30-25
6 Seitseman
Toño
2-3 31-24
7 Potatoe
Yael
2-3 30-25
8 Windwaker
Jordi
2-3 22-33
9 Mean Machine
Sam
2-3 21-34
10 Stairway to Seven
Mario
1-4 27-28
11 Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks
Tayler
0-5 8-47

Starting on bye

  • Misa: Joe Burrow at quarterback. Sam: Kyler Murray at quarterback and T.J. Hockenson at tight end.
  • Mario: Chase Brown and Justin Jefferson. Jordi: Aaron Jones Sr.
  • Oriol: Evan McPherson and the Vikings D/ST. Yael: Will Reichard.
  • Tayler: Sam LaPorta. Dan Robot: Jake Bates.

Worth knowing

  • Only 4 lineups have nobody on bye: Uriel, Joe, Toño and Benji.
  • Joe is the only unbeaten team and has a losing record against the field, 25-30.
  • Houston against Jacksonville holds 9 league starters, the most of any game, three of them the commissioner's.
  • The three lowest projections, Oriol at 85, Sam at 90.9 and Tayler at 91.1, all have at least one starter on bye.