Lizama League · est. 2011 · season sixteen · week 4 of 14

Week 4 Preview

Three teams are 3-0, and ESPN has all three of them losing. Oriol, the top seed at 29-4 against the field, is a 2.4-point underdog to a commissioner who is 1-2 and ninth, which is the tightest line on the board and the most suspicious one. Benji trails by 8.9 and Joe by 10.2.

Week 4 matchups

Projected starter totals from ESPN, refreshed Wednesday. Spread is the gap between the two projections, nothing more.

Game of the week

Oriol · 3-0 Firebreathing Platypuses 126.1

Uriel · 1-2 Balrogs 128.5

Uriel favored by 2.4 · 254.6 combined

Oriol leans onJa'Marr Chase WR · 20.4 proj

Uriel leans onBijan Robinson RB · 21.5 proj

First seed against ninth, and the ninth seed is favored by 2.4. Oriol has 37.6% of his lineup in Cincinnati against Jacksonville, Chase, Lawrence and McPherson, with Uriel's Parker Washington (15.1) on the other sideline. Uriel's best player, Bijan Robinson (21.5), plays at New Orleans on Monday night, so the commissioner gets to spend all of Sunday knowing exactly how much he needs.

Widest on the board

Yael · 1-2 Potatoe 130.4

Tayler · 0-3 Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks 96.7

Yael favored by 33.7 · 227.1 combined

Yael leans onJahmyr Gibbs RB · 26.2 proj

Tayler leans onGeorge Pickens WR · 13.7 proj

Watch list: Mike Evans (questionable), Tony Pollard (questionable)

Yael is favored by 33.7, the biggest line of the week, with 40.6% of the Potatoe lineup in one Sunday night game: Gibbs, Goff and Waller at Carolina. Jahmyr Gibbs (26.2) is the top projected starter in the league for the second week running. Tayler has two questionable starters in Mike Evans and Tony Pollard, and the Eagles defense on that roster lines up directly against Yael's Rams defense in Philadelphia.

Highest projection

Jordi · 1-2 Windwaker 124.1

Dan Robot · 2-1 Dan Robot 130.9

Dan Robot favored by 6.8 · 255.0 combined

Jordi leans onJalen Hurts QB · 17.5 proj

Dan Robot leans onChris Olave WR · 18.3 proj

Watch list: Nico Collins (questionable)

The top projected score in the league this week, 130.9, belongs to a team nobody manages. Dan Robot is favored by 6.8 and has not checked a single injury report to get there. Jordi has 32.6% of the Windwaker lineup in Rams at Eagles, Barkley, Hurts and Mevis, and the bot's DeVonta Smith is in the same game, which makes Jordi's kicker and the robot's receiver briefly rivals.

Unbeaten underdog

Benji · 3-0 Suzaku 119.0

Misa · 2-1 Obsidians 127.9

Misa favored by 8.9 · 246.9 combined

Benji leans onJosh Allen QB · 22.3 proj

Misa leans onPuka Nacua WR · 20.5 proj

Watch list: Puka Nacua (questionable)

Benji is 3-0 and second, and trails Misa by 8.9. Josh Allen (22.3) is the top Suzaku starter and, with Dalton Kincaid, 27.7% of that lineup against New England. Misa is favored with Puka Nacua (20.5) questionable and 67 points on the bench, including Joe Burrow at 18.2 as a spare.

Injury report

Toño · 1-2 Seitseman 124.0

Joe · 3-0 Photofreak 113.8

Toño favored by 10.2 · 237.8 combined

Toño leans onLamar Jackson QB · 21.1 proj

Joe leans onJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 21.0 proj

Watch list: Zay Flowers (questionable), DJ Moore (questionable), Lamar Jackson (questionable), Bucky Irving (questionable), Chris Godwin Jr. (questionable)

Joe is 3-0 and a 10.2-point underdog. Toño is favored with the most flagged starters in the league: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, DJ Moore and Bucky Irving, all questionable. If Sunday morning goes badly in Baltimore, that spread goes with it, since Lamar and Flowers are 29.4% of Toño's lineup and Joe's Carnell Tate is in the same game.

Title defense

Mario · 1-2 Stairway to Seven 119.7

Sam · 0-3 Mean Machine 100.0

Mario favored by 19.7 · 219.7 combined

Mario leans onChristian McCaffrey RB · 20.2 proj

Sam leans onDerrick Henry RB · 20.2 proj

Watch list: Justin Jefferson (questionable), Breece Hall (doubtful), Jalen Coker (questionable)

The defending champion is 0-3, eleventh, and 19.7 behind. Breece Hall is doubtful, projected at 0, and starting at running back for Sam. Mario has 41.4% of his lineup in Denver at San Francisco, the heaviest concentration of the week, and it includes Brock Purdy, who is finally the starter on purpose.

Game of the week

Unbeaten and unloved

Oriol has won 29 of 33 all-play games, more than anyone in the league. Uriel has won 15. On Wednesday ESPN makes the commissioner the favorite anyway, and he would like it noted that he did not build the projections.

2.4the spread, the tightest on the board

29-4Oriol against the field, first seed

15-18Uriel against the field, ninth seed

37.6%of Oriol's lineup in Cincinnati against Jacksonville

All three unbeaten teams are underdogs this week. One week of projections against three weeks of results; it will be settled by Tuesday.

Manager spotlight

Three managers whose record and whose week are telling different stories.

Photofreak Joe

113.8 vs Toño underdog by 10.2 · they project 124.0

Leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, 21.0 projected · vs LAC, Sun 4:25 PM ET

3-0 · seed 3W3 streakall-play 17-16

3-0, third seed, and 17-16 against the field, barely above even. The reason is the 275.7 points scored against Photofreak, the fewest in the league. This week's lineup starts Matthew Stafford at 16.4 with Tyler Shough on the bench at 18.9.

Mean Machine · 2 rings Sam

100.0 vs Mario underdog by 19.7 · they project 119.7

Leaning on Derrick Henry, RB, 20.2 projected · vs TEN, Sun 1:00 PM ET

0-3 · seed 11L3 streakall-play 7-262 titles27% in one game

Defending champion, 0-3, and 7-26 against the field. Mean Machine is starting Breece Hall, doubtful and projected at 0, with MarShawn Lloyd (6.5) the only running back on the bench. A 19.7-point hole is a lot to dig out of with one hand.

Obsidians Misa

127.9 vs Benji favored by 8.9 · they project 119.0

Leaning on Puka Nacua, WR, 20.5 projected · at PHI, Sun 1:00 PM ET

2-1 · seed 4W1 streakall-play 22-11

2-1 and fourth, having scored 379 and allowed 380.7, so the record is running slightly ahead of the math. Favored by 8.9 over an unbeaten Benji, with 67 points on the bench against Benji's 45.7.

Power rankings

Record and all-play combined, weighted 40/60. All-play is your record against every team each week, not just the one you were scheduled against - it is what your season looks like with the schedule taken out.

#	Team	Record	All-play
1	Firebreathing Platypuses Oriol	3-0	29-4
2	Suzaku Benji	3-0	22-11
3	Photofreak Joe	3-0	17-16
4	Obsidians Misa	2-1	22-11
5	Potatoe Yael	1-2	19-14
6	Stairway to Seven Mario	1-2	19-14
7	Seitseman Toño	1-2	18-15
8	Balrogs Uriel	1-2	15-18
9	Windwaker Jordi	1-2	10-23
10	Mean Machine Sam	0-3	7-26
11	Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks Tayler	0-3	0-33

Sunday morning

Toño: four questionable starters, the most in the league, including Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Sam: Breece Hall, doubtful, projected at 0, starting at running back.
Tayler: Mike Evans and Tony Pollard questionable, with 13.8 projected on the bench behind them.
Misa and Mario each have a questionable top receiver, Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson.

Worth knowing

All three 3-0 teams are underdogs. Both 0-3 teams are too, by 33.7 and 19.7.
Rams at Eagles holds 11 league starters, the most of any game, including both defenses in Yael against Tayler.
Uriel's Bijan Robinson and Oriol's Devaughn Vele meet at New Orleans on Monday night, so the game of the week is not over until the last game of the week.
Still no byes. They start next week.