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Lizama League · est. 2011 · season sixteen · week 2 of 14

Week 2 Preview

One week in, the standings exist and the all-play column already disagrees with most of them. Joe holds the sixth seed on a 1-10 record against the field. Mario sits seventh at 7-4. And the second-highest projection on this week's board, 127.8, belongs to the eleventh seed. Week 2 is where the schedule gets audited.

Week 2 matchups

Projected starter totals from ESPN. Away team listed first. Spread is the gap between the two projections, nothing more.

Somebody goes 0-2
Jordi · 0-1 Windwaker 127.8
at
Uriel · 0-1 Balrogs 122.5
Jordi favored by 5.3 · 250.3 combined
Jordi leans onJalen Hurts QB · 19.9 proj
Uriel leans onBijan Robinson RB · 22.2 proj
Watch list: Nico Collins (questionable)

The highest combined total on the board, 250.3, between two teams that are both 0-1. Jordi is favored by 5.3 from the eleventh seed on a 2-9 all-play, and at 127.8 he is projected above every team that won in week 1 except one. Uriel still has 75.6 projected on his bench, the most in the league, seven days after starting Terry McLaurin for 3.4 while Parker Washington scored 19.3 on the bench - a 15.9-point swap in a game he lost by 8.8. He has since fixed this by moving Jadarian Price (13.3) into the flex for a net gain of 0.4, and by regenerating the entire report to say so. They also hold opposite ends of two real games: Caleb Williams against Aaron Jones in Chicago, CeeDee Lamb against Terry McLaurin in Dallas.

Widest on the board
Benji · 1-0 Suzaku 119.2
at
Yael · 1-0 Potatoe 128.1
Yael favored by 8.9 · 247.3 combined
Benji leans onJosh Allen QB · 22.6 proj
Yael leans onJahmyr Gibbs RB · 24.1 proj
Watch list: Ladd McConkey (questionable)

Half of this one is settled before Sunday, and the line moved the wrong way for the man who moved his lineup. Yael's Jahmyr Gibbs (24.1) and Benji's Josh Allen (22.6) are the two best projected starters in the league, in the same stadium on Thursday night, on opposite sidelines, for managers playing each other - and Benji has now added Dalton Kincaid (9.8) at tight end, which puts a third of that Thursday game on his side of a fight he is losing. The swap cost him 1.6 and turned a 7.3 deficit into 8.9, the widest line of the week. Yael is the one who can afford it: 42.1 points, 32.9% of his lineup, ride on the Chargers and the Raiders, with Ladd McConkey questionable inside that bundle.

Game of the week
Toño · 1-0 Seitseman 116.6
at
Oriol · 1-0 Firebreathing Platypuses 117.4
Oriol favored by 0.8 · 234.0 combined
Toño leans onLamar Jackson QB · 21.6 proj
Oriol leans onAmon-Ra St. Brown WR · 20.4 proj
Watch list: D'Andre Swift (questionable)

A 0.8 spread between the second and third seeds, both 1-0, with three championship rings between them. It is also the lowest-scoring game on the board at 234 combined, so nothing is getting hidden by a shootout. Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Moore split it on Thursday, Tee Higgins and Dalton Schultz split it in Houston, and Dobbins and Tuten split it in Denver. Three real games where one of these two is wrong.

Four fights, one game
Mario · 0-1 Stairway to Seven 124.6
at
Tayler · 0-1 Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks 115.8
Mario favored by 8.8 · 240.4 combined
Mario leans onChristian McCaffrey RB · 21.4 proj
Tayler leans onJustin Herbert QB · 19.5 proj

Mario gave up 178.6 and scored 132, which is 7-4 against the field and 0-1 in the standings. Tayler scored 71.6 and went 0-11. Mario is favored by 8.8, and four of his starters line up directly against three of hers - including Christian McCaffrey (21.4) against De'Von Achane (17.1) in San Francisco, and, best of all, Tayler's kicker against Mario's defense in Pittsburgh.

The machine
Sam · 0-1 Mean Machine 114.3
at
Dan Robot · 0-1 Dan Robot 122.9
Dan Robot favored by 8.6 · 237.2 combined
Sam leans onDerrick Henry RB · 17.1 proj
Dan Robot leans onBo Nix QB · 18.6 proj
Watch list: Jalen Coker (questionable)

The autodraft bot is favored by 8.6 over the defending champion, which is the only line on the board that should be embarrassing to somebody. Sam has the lowest projection in the league at 114.3 and just 40.9 on his bench, second-lightest, so there is very little to fix if this goes wrong. Derrick Henry and Chris Olave are on opposite sides of the same Baltimore game, and neither of them can be asked about it.

The audit
Joe · 1-0 Photofreak 114.6
at
Misa · 1-0 Obsidians 121.2
Misa favored by 6.6 · 235.8 combined
Joe leans onJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 18.5 proj
Misa leans onPuka Nacua WR · 21.2 proj
Watch list: Eddy Pineiro (questionable)

Joe is 1-0 and holds the sixth seed on a 1-10 all-play - he beat the one team he could have beaten and drew a 6.6-point deficit for it. He also carries the lightest bench in the league at 39.7, so what you see is what he has. The symmetry is almost too neat: Jonathan Taylor for Joe and Patrick Mahomes for Misa are projected 18.3 and 18.2 - a tenth of a point apart, in the same game, on Sunday night.

Thursday night

Half a matchup before Sunday

Buffalo and Detroit hold eight league starters, including the top two projections in the entire league - and those two belong to the managers playing each other. Yael and Benji settle a large part of their week before anybody else has kicked off.

24.1Jahmyr Gibbs, the top projected starter in the league, for Yael
22.6Josh Allen, second, for Benji - who is playing Yael
46.7those two combined, in one stadium, on opposite sidelines
8league starters in that one Thursday night game

Five other managers have a starter in it too, so everybody has something to shout at on Thursday.

Manager spotlight

Three managers whose week is more interesting than their record. The all-play column arrived this week and it has opinions.

Photofreak Joe
114.6 vs Misa underdog by 6.6 · they project 121.2
Leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, 18.5 projected · at ARI, Sun 4:25 PM ET
1-0 · seed 6W1 streakall-play 1-10

The most fortunate 1-0 in league history, probably. A 1-10 record against the field, the sixth seed, and the lightest bench in the league at 39.7 - two stars and thirteen scrubs, exactly as advertised. Nothing here is a criticism: he is a game up on eight better teams and owes no one an explanation.

Potatoe Yael
128.1 vs Benji favored by 8.9 · they project 119.2
Leaning on Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, 24.1 projected · at BUF, Thu 8:15 PM ET
1-0 · seed 1W1 streakall-play 11-033% in one game

The best number in the league in week 1, 178.6, a clean 11-0 against the field, the first seed, and now the highest projection of week 2 at 128.1. Then 42.1 of it - nearly a third of the lineup - goes into Chargers against Raiders, with Ladd McConkey questionable inside that bundle. Four finals and no rings; the most decorated team never to win has never opened a season looking better than this.

Suzaku Benji
119.2 vs Yael underdog by 8.9 · they project 128.1
Leaning on Josh Allen, QB, 22.6 projected · vs DET, Thu 8:15 PM ET
1-0 · seed 4W1 streakall-play 8-327% in one game

Moved a tight end out of Chicago and into Buffalo, and now has 32.4 points - 27.2% of his lineup - in the Thursday night game, against the manager who owns the best starter in it. The edit cost 1.6 projected points and widened his deficit to 8.9, the largest on the board. He is 1-0 and fourth-seeded on an 8-3 all-play, so this is a good team choosing violence on a weeknight.

Power rankings

Record and all-play combined, weighted 40/60. All-play is your record against every team each week, not just the one you were scheduled against - it is what your season looks like with the schedule taken out.

#TeamRecordAll-play
1 Potatoe
Yael		 1-0 11-0
2 Firebreathing Platypuses
Oriol		 1-0 10-1
3 Seitseman
Toño		 1-0 9-2
4 Suzaku
Benji		 1-0 8-3
5 Obsidians
Misa		 1-0 6-5
6 Photofreak
Joe		 1-0 1-10
7 Stairway to Seven
Mario		 0-1 7-4
8 Balrogs
Uriel		 0-1 5-6
9 Mean Machine
Sam		 0-1 4-7
10 Windwaker
Jordi		 0-1 2-9
11 Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks
Tayler		 0-1 0-11

The schedule is lying

  • Six teams are 1-0 and six are 0-1, and the all-play records put four of them on the wrong side of that line.
  • Joe is seeded sixth on a 1-10 all-play. Mario is seeded seventh on a 7-4. One of them is in the playoff field and it is not the one scoring points.
  • Jordi is the eleventh seed carrying the second-highest projection of week 2 at 127.8. Tayler is twelfth after 0-11 and is still projected above a team that won.
  • Top seven of twelve make the playoffs and seeding ties break on total points, so a 71.6 week costs more than one loss.

Worth knowing

  • Scoring changed this week: yardage is now counted per yard rather than in ten-yard blocks, so 19 rushing yards is 1.9 points instead of 1. Every projection on this page is a few points higher than it would have been last week.
  • Only five flagged starters in the entire league - McConkey, Nico Collins, D'Andre Swift, Jalen Coker and Eddy Pineiro, all questionable. Week 1 had four in one lineup.
  • No byes until week 5. Nobody gets to blame the calendar for another three weeks.
  • Eight league starters are in Buffalo against Detroit on Thursday, and nine more in Chicago against Minnesota on Sunday.