Lizama League · est. 2011 · season sixteen · week 1 of 14

Week 1 Preview

Sixteen seasons in and the projections have never been this indecisive. Five of the six openers are inside six points, three of them land on exactly 229.0 combined, and two are byte-for-byte identical: 116.9 against 112.1, twice, in different rooms. Somewhere in here is a 40-point blowout nobody saw coming.

Week 1 matchups

Projected starter totals from ESPN. Away team listed first. Spread is the gap between the two projections, nothing more.

Rings vs reality

Uriel Balrogs 110.4

Benji Suzaku 115.7

Benji favored by 5.3 · 226.1 combined

Uriel leans onBijan Robinson RB · 18.7 proj

Benji leans onJosh Allen QB · 18.1 proj

Watch list: Emeka Egbuka (questionable)

Four championships, more than anyone else in league history, and the model still has the commissioner tenth of eleven humans and a 5.3-point underdog in his own opener. Benji is favored on the back of the $55 quarterback everyone spent draft night laughing about - a quarterback who spends Sunday afternoon throwing at Uriel's kicker and Uriel's defense, both of them Houston, both in that same game.

Highest board

Jordi Windwaker 120.0

Toño Seitseman 114.5

Jordi favored by 5.5 · 234.5 combined

Jordi leans onJalen Hurts QB · 20.2 proj

Toño leans onLamar Jackson QB · 17.9 proj

Watch list: Zay Flowers (questionable), Tee Higgins (questionable), Cameron Dicker (questionable), Tyler Warren (questionable)

Jordi's 120.0 is the top projection of the week, which is a strange sentence to write about a manager who bought two quarterbacks at $5 each rather than pick one. Only one of them is starting. Toño counters with two rings and four questionable starters, which is not a strategy so much as a weather forecast.

The heartbreak bracket

Yael Potatoe 117.3

Mario Stairway to Seven 111.7

Yael favored by 5.6 · 229.0 combined

Yael leans onJahmyr Gibbs RB · 21.0 proj

Mario leans onJustin Jefferson WR · 17.1 proj

Watch list: Ashton Jeanty (questionable), Christian McCaffrey (questionable), Luther Burden III (questionable)

Yael brings Jahmyr Gibbs at 21.0, the highest projected player in the league, and the heaviest history in it: Potatoe has reached four finals and won zero. Mario has two rings from back-to-back seasons and does not appear to care about anyone's narrative. This game also has five players lining up against each other in real NFL games, the most on the board.

Twin one

Oriol Firebreathing Platypuses 116.9

Sam Mean Machine 112.1

Oriol favored by 4.8 · 229.0 combined

Oriol leans onJa'Marr Chase WR · 18.9 proj

Sam leans onBreece Hall RB · 15.7 proj

Watch list: Ja'Marr Chase (questionable), D'Andre Swift (questionable), Rome Odunze (questionable), Malik Nabers (questionable), Breece Hall (questionable), DK Metcalf (questionable)

The 2018 champion against the 2025 champion, and the draft awards page forgot to give Oriol his ring. Chase leads a lineup with the thinnest bench in the league at 42.1 projected points, so this roster is a Ferrari with no spare tyre. Sam has three flagged starters and the trophy from last January.

Widest gap

Tayler Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks 113.3

Joe Photofreak 102.0

Tayler favored by 11.3 · 215.3 combined

Tayler leans onJustin Herbert QB · 18.1 proj

Joe leans onJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 18.7 proj

Watch list: Josh Jacobs (day to day), Carnell Tate (questionable)

The only game on the board outside six points, and the rookie is the one giving them. Tayler is favored by 11.3 in her first-ever Lizama League game, and is sitting on 71.3 projected bench points, the most in the league, with Jaxson Dart at 17.4 the single biggest piece of it, stranded behind Herbert in a one-quarterback league. Joe's 102.0 is the lowest projection of the week: the price of spending $145 on two players and $55 on the other thirteen.

Twin two

Dan Robot Dan Robot 116.9

Misa Obsidians 112.1

Dan Robot favored by 4.8 · 229.0 combined

Dan Robot leans onBo Nix QB · 16.2 proj

Misa leans onPuka Nacua WR · 20.1 proj

Watch list: Jeremiyah Love (questionable), Puka Nacua (questionable), Khalil Shakir (questionable)

The autodraft bot is projected at 116.9 and favored by 4.8 over a human being. Misa has Nacua at 20.1 and a quarterback room of Burrow and Mahomes that cost $7 combined. Losing this one does not technically go on your permanent record, but everyone will know.

The board

Nobody knows anything

The projections are refusing to commit. Five of six openers are inside 5.6 points, the widest game on the board is 11.3, and three separate matchups project to exactly 229.0 combined points. Two of them have identical scores on both sides.

4.8the tightest spread, and there are two of them: Oriol at Sam, and the bot at Misa

229.0combined projection in three of the six games, which is either fate or arithmetic

110.4the four-time champion's projection, tenth of eleven humans

11.3the rookie's edge in her debut, the only real spread on the board

A projection is a starting point, not a result. Last September the same numbers had opinions, and by January it was Mean Machine holding the trophy.

Manager spotlight

Three managers whose week is more interesting than their projection. More of this section unlocks as the season builds a record to talk about.

Seitseman · 2 rings Toño

114.5 vs Jordi underdog by 5.5 · they project 120.0

Leaning on Lamar Jackson, QB, 17.9 projected · at IND, Sun 1:00 PM ET

2 titles37% in one game4 flagged starters

Baltimore at Indianapolis carries 42.7 of his 114.5 projected points, 37 percent of a starting lineup in a single stadium, and it is the heaviest concentration in the league. Two of those three are questionable, as are four of his nine starters overall. Jordi holds the Ravens defense and Mark Andrews in that same game, so these two spend Sunday afternoon rooting for opposite things about the same football team.

Balrogs · 4 rings Uriel

110.4 vs Benji underdog by 5.3 · they project 115.7

Leaning on Bijan Robinson, RB, 18.7 projected · at PIT, Sun 1:00 PM ET

4 titles

The most decorated manager in sixteen seasons opens as an underdog with the second-lowest projection of any human. The one thing this roster does have is spread: 17.6 percent is his largest exposure to any single NFL game, the flattest in the league, and it is a kicker and a defense. Zero flagged starters, which is the only column he leads this week.

Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks Tayler

113.3 vs Joe favored by 11.3 · they project 102.0

Leaning on Justin Herbert, QB, 18.1 projected · vs ARI, Sun 4:25 PM ET

rookie season

The biggest favorite on the board is the person who has never done this before, giving 11.3 points in her first Lizama League game. She also has 71.3 projected points on her bench, the most in the league, with Jaxson Dart at 17.4 the single biggest piece of it, stranded behind Herbert in a one-quarterback league. Two of them are very good bench players.

Power rankings

Ordered by projected starting-lineup points. Nobody has earned anything yet.

#	Team	Proj
1	Windwaker Jordi	120.0
2	Potatoe Yael	117.3
3	Firebreathing Platypuses Oriol	116.9
4	Suzaku Benji	115.7
5	Seitseman Toño	114.5
6	Terrible Towel, Mediocre Picks Tayler	113.3
7	Mean Machine Sam	112.1
8	Obsidians Misa	112.1
9	Stairway to Seven Mario	111.7
10	Balrogs Uriel	110.4
11	Photofreak Joe	102.0

Landmines

Toño has four questionable starters, including both wide receivers and his kicker. That is a lot of trust to place in Sunday morning news.
Sam, Oriol and Misa each carry three flagged starters into week 1. Between them they are the defending champion and two of the top four projections.
Josh Jacobs is listed day-to-day in Joe's starting lineup, which is a problem when your projection is already last at 102.0.
Week 11 is coming for somebody: Uriel, Joe and the bot each have five players on bye that week. Plan now, panic later.

Worth knowing

Nine league starters are in Cincinnati vs Tampa Bay, and nine more in Denver at Kansas City. Two games, eighteen lineups affected.
Oriol has 116.9 in his starters and only 42.1 on his bench, the widest starter-to-bench gap in the league. Stars and scrubs, fully committed.
Tayler has 71.3 projected points on her bench, which is 29 more than Oriol has, and she is the rookie.
Top seven of twelve make the playoffs, and seeding ties are broken by total points scored, so every point in a blowout still counts.